The average points of Milan

Published on Jan 08, 2016

He likes to recall that he always made the best of those who preceded him. And his career says that he's right. The problem is that Milan is not enough to exceed those who came before, especially if this “first” is the name of Pippo Inzaghi, who has led the rossoneri to the lowest point of the last few years.

The paradox of sinisa mihajlovic Mihajlovic is, in a certain sense, just this. He chose to coach a training that could not only progress but the progression (which there is) is judged to be insufficient. For a company that dreamt of the place in the Champions League in the seventh place in the standings and the game are not enough. Result: with the Rome, where on the bench there is another technician in the balance) and then in the Italian Cup and with the Carpi coach Serbian to play the place.

Yet, as you said, the progress made compared to last year, both in terms of points of volume of game. Milan is back to having a positive balance between throws made and suffered, in total (+61), who in the mirror (+17), which from inside the penalty area (+52), all good indicators of the value of the team and its future performance. Of course, we are far from elite (the difference of the pitches in the port of Naples, to say, it is + 163) but Milan is solidly in the premium range.

From the statistical point of view to curb the Devil, so far, has been the ability of the opponents to pierce it with ease: 36% of shots in the mirror hurled against Donnarumma become goals. In serie A only Carpi, Lazio and Fiorentina (who, however, grants very few conclusions in the mirror) make worse. However, as said other times, the conversion is a metric variable, and therefore, in the next few days, the figure may improve.

On the whole, in addition to the ranking, the statistics seem to indicate that the Milan – beyond the role of fate, that in football is always important - can realistically aim for, not the Champions league but a place in the Europa League. Which, coincidentally, is the goal to which, according to some statistical models, the team could aspire at the beginning of the championship.

These assessment systems forecasts had reckoned to the milanese, on average, 61 end points (of 1.62 per game), good for seventh place. At the moment, with 1,56 points to match, Montolivo & C. is only a slight delay on the table waiting.


Even the bookmakers, the people who have forecast us to live, feel that the Milan Mihajlovic is not so distant from the expectations. If you convert the dimensions of the items in points (here the procedure) and compare the result with the ranking royal it turns out that the rossoneri are back compared to what they expected the lords of the bets, but not so much: 1,58 total points of less.


In short, summing up the game of Milan is certainly not brilliant (on this, Berlusconi may be right), but the results – higher than those of Inzaghi – are only slightly lower than evaluations of more rational on the value of the rose. Not to mention that, as suggested by the high percentage of conversion of their opponents, so far sinisa mihajlovic was not kissed by luck.

At the end of the fair, perhaps the real fault of the coach has been endorsing excessive expectations with respect to the strength of the players at his disposal. The company has asked for a place in the Champions league and him, even recently, has accepted the challenge. Perhaps over-confidence in its quality, the bar at the top has put on him. And now it doesn't matter who the bookmakers statistical models giudicassero that goal is not very realistic.


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